Focus on the Future

Today, Syracuse landed Rakeem Christmas, the consensus #1 center in the class of 2011. An exceptionally athletic 6-9/225, Christmas is more of a combo big man and would be a perfect fit next to true center Fab Melo...If Melo was to stay for his sophomore campaign.

Therein lies the inspiration for these rankings, which project how Syracuse will fare over the next three seasons. These projections will not be very exhaustive, but will at least (hopefully) give a decent idea of what to expect. The projections are very broad, with a special emphasis on who will stay and who will enter the draft early, as those are the greatest variables governing each season. I based the number of game's they'll likely play on this year's team (including how many games I expect them to play in the Big East tourney), and didn't account for potential injuries, because those are obviously impossible to predict.



2010-11
Key departures: Wesley Johnson, Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku
Key additions: Fab Melo (#14 overall recruit), Dion Waiters (#15), C.J. Fair (#63),
Projected Lineup:
PG - Scoop Jardine (Sr; 6-2/190)
SG - Brandon Triche (So; 6-4/198)
SF - Kris Joseph (Jr; 6-7/207)
PF - Rick Jackson (Sr; 6-9/240)
C - Fab Melo (Fr; 7-0/255)
Key reserves: Mookie Jones (So; 6-6/220), Dion Waiters (Fr; 6-4/210), James Southerland (So; 6-8/205), DaShonte Riley (So; 7-0/233), C.J. Fair (Fr; 6-7/196), Baye Moussa Keita (Fr; 6-11/210)

Despite losing First-Team All-American swingman Wesley Johnson and co-captains Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku, the Orange the should be in a good position to rival last season's success. The zone will have even more length due to the addition of 5-star recruit Fab Melo, a legit 7-footer with a monstrous wingspan, and 4-star recruit Dion Waiters, a scoring-minded power guard who will help to make up for some of the offense generated by the three departures. Joseph should emerge as the unquestioned leader, and will prove to be a very adequate replacement for Johnson, while Scoop will doubtlessly prove to be a better point guard than Brandon Triche, a natural shooting guard who was nevertheless efficient as a freshman running one of the best teams in the nation. Rick Jackson is a formidable post presence and a great shot-blocker, and will form with Melo one of the nation's best front court tandems. The team's success will very much depend on the production of Melo and Waiters, though they're as solid as freshman get, as Melo is a terrific defender who knows how to wield his huge frame (traits that will not get lost in translation), and Waiters is a very efficient scorer, great at attacking the basket and drawing contact. This will be an extremely physical team; Joseph is the team's slimmest major piece, but he's also a master at drawing fouls.

The Orange should not have much difficulty navigating a weakened Big East in which there is no crystal clear favorite, expecting to certainly finish in the top five, but projecting their post-season performance will be nearly impossible even after they draw their first opponent in the NCAA tournament. Still, look for this team to make waves. Few teams will boast as imposing a blend of shooting, size and athleticism, and this team should feature at least eight or nine players a night, where the 2010 squad's rotation consisted of a magnificent seven, and in the tournament shrunk to about six. Scoop and Triche should improve on last year's numbers just the slightest bit (look for them to combine for 21 points and 9 assists), while Joseph should contribute about 15 and 8 with Rick Jackson putting in 11, 9 and 2 blocks and Melo going in for 9, 9 and 2 blocks of his own. Jones, Waiters and Southerland should be good for 23 points off the bench, which would suggest that the 2011 Orange will exceed last year's nation-pacing offensive numbers. This team is certainly imperfect, though; their backcourt play will likely be erratic, Melo will struggle occasionally in Big East play (and consistently on the offensive end throughout the year), Joseph might prove to be less effective with more attention trained on him and they will depend a great deal on reserves to hit from range. That said, this team will be as good as a team can be after losing three great starters.

Record: 26-10
Big East: 3rd
Tournament: Sweet 16



2011-12
Key departures: Rick Jackson, Scoop Jardine
Key additions: Rakeem Christmas (#8), Michael Carter-Williams (#25), Trevor Cooney (#51)
Projected Lineup:
PG - Brandon Triche (Jr; 6-4/198)
SG - Dion Waiters (So; 6-4/210)
SF - Kris Joseph (Sr; 6-7/207)
PF - Rakeem Christmas (Fr; 6-9/222)
C - Fab Melo (So; 7-0/255)
Key reserves: Michael Carter-Williams (Fr; 6-5/175), James Southerland (Jr; 6-8/205), Mookie Jones (Jr; 6-6/220), DaShonte Riley (Jr; 7-0/233), C.J. Fair (So; 6-7/196), Trevor Cooney (Fr; 6-4/185), Baye Moussa Keita (So; 6-11/210)

The Orange's championship hopes in 2011 lie with the future of Fab Melo and Kris Joseph. Both should be 50/50 as to whether or not they should return, but as neither will put up awe-inspiring numbers - and with an excellent recruiting class that won't cut into either's playing time - look for both of them to do the right thing and come back. Melo would likely be the only center worthy of being a first round pick next year, and he's very old (20) for his class, but he's simply too raw on the offensive end to hope to be a scorer in the league without a couple years of college under his belt, and could still easily be the top center prospect in 2012. Joseph will be projected as a late first round pick for as long as he's in school, so why not stick around to try win a title for a potential boost? One major reason should ensure that come back, however, and that's the very real potential of a lockout in the NBA in 2012, which would practically require that they come back to Cuse. Should they both return, this team would be nearly on par with the 2003 squad talent-wise, and could be even more well-rounded. Triche will resume his starting spot at the point a more mature, confident player, and Waiters will step into a starting role ready to unleash hell. Joseph will continue to be a reliable leader, while Rakeem Christmas proves to be one of the best young big men in the nation, blasting by and overpowering defenders of any size with his jaw-dropping athleticism and skill set. Melo could potentially lead the nation in blocks, while Southerland and Mookie sustain their roles as reliable snipers off the bench and C.J. Fair gets his first real taste of action.

The brightest piece, however, may well turn out to be combo guard Michael Carter-Williams (#16 Rivals/#25 ESPN), an incredible scorer who could evolve into a bigger version of Stephen Curry. A five-star recruit, Carter-Williams will get plenty of run as a freshman and will play a major role in Syracuse's success. The Orange should have no trouble tearing through the Big East as just about every marquee prospect currently in school should be gone, and while Syracuse has already signed two of the top 16 players in the class, the rest of the Big East has only reeled in just two combined (Louisville nabbed 5-star SG Wayne Blackshear and Nova signed 4-star combo guard Tyrone Johnson). This team will boast four players who could each turn out to be a superstar that year (Joseph, Christmas, Waiters, Melo) and one that will be a superstar when his time comes (Carter-Williams), to go along with three very solid vets (Triche, Southerland and Jones) and a couple potential-laden role players (Fair and Riley). They will have the size, toughness and athleticism to compete with anyone, and with Carter-Williams on board, they should be as good as shooting team as the '09-10 squad. Yet with just one senior in Joseph, they will likely be too young to win a title. The talent will be there, but the bulk of their cumulative experience will have been learned along the way during their tourney run. They will have a shot at the championship, but in all likelihood will not be mature enough to bring it home.

Record: 31-7
Big East: 1st
Tournament: Final Four



2012-13
Key departures: Kris Joseph, Rakeem Christmas, Fab Melo
Key additions: DaJuan Coleman (#2)
Projected Lineup:
PG - Michael Carter-Williams (So; 6-5/175)
SG - Dion Waiters (Jr; 6-4/210)
SF - James Southerland (Sr; 6-8/205)
PF - DaJuan Coleman (Fr; 6-8/280)
C - DaShonte Riley (Sr; 7-0/233)
Key reserves: Brandon Triche (Sr; 6-4/198), C.J. Fair (Jr; 6-7/196), Mookie Jones (Sr; 6-6/220), Trevor Cooney (So; 6-4/185), Baye Moussa Keita (Jr; 6-11/210)

What we've all feared but knew would come: the mass exodus, with the three best players leaving and just one prospect potentially arriving to help alleviate the damage. Joseph will have either entered early or graduated, Melo is not a three-year player, and NBADraft.net has Christmas going 8th overall in 2012. He's not passing that up. With no major prospects in the 2012 class having committed yet, projecting how the Orange might fare is especially hard, but I have made one relatively bold projection in deciding that they're getting 6-8/280 man-child DaJuan Coleman, who is considering Syracuse and attends Andy Rautins' alma mater, Jamesville-Dewitt High School. They are in the running for a number of other top 25 recruits (including Dwight Howard clone Andre Drummond, the top-ranked prize), and while we're all holding out for a Drummond-Coleman low-post combo, just signing Coleman is more likely. The 2012-13 campaign will be a pot luck year, but if Carter-Williams and Waiters fulfill their potential, who knows? Southerland should turn out to be a mighty fine player when his tenure expires, while Fair and Cooney could turn turn out to be great role players with a shot at starting a year or two. Due to a trigger-happy approach to offense and an attitude problem, Mookie Jones will likely be forced to embrace a smaller role as his career winds down, while I painfully have Triche going the Greg Paulus route (I'm taking basketball here): averaging around 10 points and starting for the first three years of his college career, then when his Hall of Fame coach realizes he's hit his ceiling, he tries a potential-laden combo guard at the point in his stead.

If the Orange were to sign Coleman and Waiters elected to stay (which I think is likely), this could still be a very good team. Carter-Williams and Waiters would comprise what would have to be the nation's best scoring backcourt, and at the swing they would have Southerland, a seasoned veteran who can really shoot the rock. Coleman, based on potential, could dominate from day one, and they'll have a bunch of great shooters. They won't, however, have the stability that they will have enjoyed in previous years, with at least three starters playing out of position and a couple very raw centers anchoring the zone. Oak Hill product Moussa Keita could turn out to be a great defensive presence, but even so they would not have the dependable post play that had come to define recent Boeheim teams. It will be a year in which a few players really get a chance to prove themselves, Carter-Williams, Waiters and Fair chief among them. This might actually turn out to be their most experienced team, with as many as six or seven seniors, but many of them will be riding out the remainder of their career on the bench. They'll nevertheless boast a variety of intriguing talents, with enough vets to help them along.

Record: 23-12
Big East: 6th
Tournament: 2nd round